Scenario: Shut down the U.S. Power Grid
Scenario
Using a coordinated attack on major power plants and transmission sub-stations, shut down the entire U.S. power grid.
Description
If you are a terrorist and you want to bring maximum damage, one way to do it would be to shut down the power grid across the entire continental United States. The power grid is essential to life and commerce in the U.S., and it is interwoven into everything we do. As described in this scenario, electricity is as important to the nation as oxygen.
The city power failure scenario discusses the potential targets in the power grid: power plants, transmission lines and transmission transformers. To bring down the power grid on a national level, the terrorists would take the following steps:
- They would wait for a day of high electricity demand. For example, they would pick a clear and very hot day for most of the nation in the middle of a summer heat wave. The attack would probably occur around 5:00 PM EST.
- They would pick large power plants serving major metropolitan areas in the US. The target list might include 30 power plants. Damage to the plant does not necessarily need to be extensive. The terrorist act at any given plant could be as simple as a grenade thrown in a main generator or an explosion in a coal conveyor system. Or it could be as elaborate as a truck bomb in a nuclear power plant. By hitting 30 large plants, it would be possible to eliminate approximately 5% of the total generating capacity in the United States.
- At the same time, the terrorists would hit major transmission lines and transmission line substations in 30 to 50 remote areas. These targets are much easier to attack, because currently they are unprotected, in the open and often located in sparsely populated areas. By carefully choosing the targets, it would be possible to eliminate another 5% of the capacity.
Since the entire power grid is already stressed by the choice of the day, the loss of between 5% and 10% of the total capacity of the system would be likely to overwhelm the system and start a cascade effect. The remaining power plants would be unable to handle the load, so they would cut themselves off from the grid to protect themselves. The entire country would lose power over the course of several minutes.
This scenario requires a coordinated team of only 60 to 100 terrorists. It might be that the team focuses only on the transmission system, ignoring actual power plants. Transmission system targets are much easier to attack.
Damage Potential
Damage from a nationwide power outage comes from three sources:
- There is the gigantic economic damage that comes from shutting down the entire nation. Literally everything would stop.
- There may be massive riots or looting, depending on the mood of city residents.
- There is the psychological effect of disrupting life for 300 million people.
There is the potential that a strike of this magnitude could not be fixed easily. Large components like generators and transformers are not off-the-shelf items. Most are custom manufactured or manufactured only on an as-needed basis.
Potential Solutions
We should take the following steps:
- We should heavily guard all transmission transformer sites and all major power plants. These targets are too valuable, and too hard to replace if they are damaged. See also the nuclear plant scenario. We should protect these assets as though our lives depend on them. We should also establish automated systems to watch and protect the transmission lines, and begin the process of burying transmission lines underground so that they are not so vulnerable to attack.
- We should prepare ourselves as a society for major power outages. If there were an attack like this, one way to lessen the impact would be to have a plan in place that cuts national energy demand by a factor of 10% to 20% very quickly. We have no way to do that today, short of blacking out entire sections of a city. See the civil defense part of the solutions page.
- We should build a healthy margin of excess generating capacity into the system.
- We should encourage people and businesses to buy generators. Municipalities should equip all essential city services (like traffic lights) with backup power systems, as should building owners (to power elevators, ventilation and lighting systems). These should not be "one hour" systems -- they should be able to run for weeks using diesel fuel or gasoline trucked in from local suppliers. Many high-tech and manufacturing companies already have backup power systems to maintain power in a natural disaster. We should extend that philosophy across society so that a total loss of power has no significant effect on the nation.
Ultimately, we need to redesign our power system to be far more distributed and far less centralized so that an attack has no large-scale effects. Our power, water and fuel systems are currently designed under the assumption that terrorism does not exist, and they balance supply and demand on a razor's edge. This creates highly vulnerable systems. We should begin the process of redesign today.
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