Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Attack the Alaska Pipeline

Scenario

Using a bomb or a rifle, attack the Alaska pipeline at one or more points.

Description

The Alaska pipeline is an 800-mile-long, 4-foot-diameter pipe that carries crude oil form the North Slopes of Alaska to the Valdez terminal, an ice-free port. There, the oil loads onto supertankers for transport to refineries. The pipeline can carry up to 2 million barrels (84 million gallons) of oil per day. Depending on which report you read, the Alaska pipeline carries between 6% and 25% of the oil used in the United States on a daily basis. As a terrorist, that makes the Alaska pipeline an inviting target for at least three reasons:

  • By hitting the pipeline, you put a big hole in the U.S. oil supply
  • By hitting the pipeline, you create an environmental disaster
  • By hitting the pipeline, you cause tremendous economic loss for the oil industry. If oil is priced at $15 a barrel, then oil companies lose $30 million per day if the pipeline shuts down. That's approximately $10 billion per year.

The ease with which a terrorist might attack the pipeline was demonstrated in October 2001. A drunk hunter shot the pipeline with his hunting rifle, either on purpose or by accident. The oil in the pipeline is at a very high pressure, so approximately 150 gallons per minute sprayed out of the hole. At that rate, and given that it took about 36 hours to shut down the pipeline, drain oil from it and patch the hole, approximately 300,000 gallons of oil had coated the surrounding forest.

This incident demonstrates that one mode of attack would be to choose several remote sections of the pipeline and shoot it multiple times. Another mode would be to bomb it and open a gaping hole that would spill millions of gallons in very short order.

Damage Potential

In a bombing, environmental damage would be extreme. Millions of gallons of oil spilled on the ground would run off just like water would, meaning that it would head straight for streams and rivers. That would spread the oil far from the spill site.

As mentioned above, shutting down the pipeline would create something on the order of $10 billion per year in losses, and would also put a hole in the U.S. oil supply chain. If combined with other attacks, there is the potential to severely limit the amount of oil reaching the U.S., and that would have a huge effect on the economy. See this scenario for details.

Potential Solutions

Protecting the entire 800-mile length of the pipeline from attack is a nearly impossible task, especially since you can attack it by air (with a small or large plane or a helicopter), from nearby roads, on an ATV or snowmobile, or on foot. A rifle or a small amount of explosive is all you need to carry.

For this reason, the Alaska pipeline represents one of those examples of a corporate project that made sense in a "no terrorism" environment, but makes no sense now. It is an 800-mile long unguarded terrorist target waiting for attack.

The only real solution is to close the Alaska pipeline, along with others like it, and build no others. That sounds extreme today because no one has attacked the Alaska pipeline yet. The day after someone attacks the pipeline, it will seem like common sense.

See also Solutions. See also the fuel supply scenario for ways that terrorists would weave the Alaska pipeline into a larger strategy.

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