Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Attack the Coal Supply

Scenario

Using explosives, destroy mining equipment or railroad lines so that the mining or transportation of coal is significantly disrupted.

Description

Coal is a critical resource for two major industries in the U.S.: power generation and steel production. About 80% of all coal used in the U.S. burns in coal-fired power plants [ref], so power generation is the biggest consumer of U.S. coal by far. According to this page, about half of all electricity produced in the U.S. comes from coal.

Therefore, if you are a terrorist and you want to disrupt power generation in the United States, one strategy might be to try to interrupt the mining or transportation of coal.

There are thousands of coal mines in the U.S. However, two important facts make it possible to consider an attack on coal production and transportation:

  1. About 20% of the coal in the U.S. comes from a small region in northeast Wyoming called the Powder River Basin. You can see several of the mines in the area on these aerial photos: According to this page, "Coal production was 1,075.5 million short tons in 2000 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) preliminary estimate." This page shows how much of that coal comes from Wyoming and other major mines.
  2. All of the coal moves out of the Powder River Basin by rail, and the number of rail lines is extremely limited. The following map shows the major rail lines in the area as well as the three mines that appear in the aerial photos.


    Rail lines serving the Power River Basin. Green circles are major mines.
Terrorists, using railroad maps available in everything from MapQuest.com to many handheld GPS receivers (or using industry maps like this incredibly detailed map of coal mines, railroads and power plants) could analyze railroads that serve coal mines and, with a small number of attacks, disrupt the movement of a sizeable portion of the coal produced in the U.S.

Likely attacks would be on railroad bridges, especially over major rivers, because large bridges can take a year or more to replace. The terrorists would analyze maps to find significant choke points that affect coal transportation.

Other possible coal targets include the mines themselves and the equipment there, coal loading facilities for trains or barges, and the trains themselves. Attacking or derailing a large coal train while it is in motion could create a very large mess.

Damage Potential

If a series of attacks could shut down 30% of the coal production in the U.S. in a way that is difficult to repair (e.g. -- attacking large bridges), then that would potentially eliminate 15% of the electrical generating capacity in the United States. That would have serious repercussions for the power grid, because supply and demand are finely balanced. It would almost certainly lead to rationing in many parts of the country. See this scenario for a description.

Potential Solutions

This attack seems less likely than an all-out assault on power plants and transmission lines, because it would not have immediate impact. It might take several weeks or months for power plants to burn off existing on-site inventories of coal. However, this attack might take far fewer people to implement, and the attacks could occur in remote areas where there is little chance of detection or capture.

Preventing an attack is difficult because railroad lines are nearly impossible to protect. Some possibilities include:

  • Significantly increased 24-hour security at all important/hard-to-replace railroad bridges.
  • Automated security systems on railroad lines in remote areas.
  • Stockpiling coal at power plants and strategically located storage sites.

Related Links


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