Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Cripple the U.S. Transportation System

Scenario

By attacking the fuel supply chain, cripple the U.S. transportation system with a lack of fuel.

Description

If you are a terrorist and you want to bring America to its knees, one way to do it would be to cut off the supply of fuel. U.S. society is remarkably dependent on liquid fossil fuels to power its transportation infrastructure. Cars, trucks, trains, buses, boats and planes are almost exclusively dependent on liquid fossil fuels for their operation. If a terrorist organization could significantly decrease the supply of fossil fuels in the U.S., even for a short period of time, the effects could be devastating. It would be impossible to transport food. It would be impossible for many people to get to stores to buy food even if food is there. People could not get to work and the airlines would shut down again, decimating the business environment. Overall, destroying the fossil fuel infrastructure in the United States would be a very effective way to cripple the nation.

How would a terrorist destroy the fuel supply chain in the U.S.? There are five different ways:

  • Attack oil pipelines like the Alaska pipeline. If you read the Alaska pipeline scenario you will see that that attack is almost trivial and could be accomplished by a single individual.
  • Attack super tankers. If you read the Super tanker scenario you will see that certain attacks are relatively easy with a small number of people. Oil spills also create a cleanup nightmare. Each target requires one or two terrorists.
  • Attack oil refineries. If you read the refinery scenario, you will see that a small group of people could attack several refineries with small bombs, truck bombs, grenades or missiles and take them off line with little effort. Each target requires a single terrorist.
  • Attack fuel storage depots. If you read the tank farm scenario you will see that these facilities make easy and spectacular targets. Each target requires a single terrorist.
  • Attack the strategic oil reserve. By hitting pumping stations, you could take the reserve off-line for a period of time.
If you combined attacks on all five types of targets simultaneously, you could cut the nation's fuel supply so significantly, for a period of a month or more, that it would cause significant difficulties for the country. A coordinated group of 100 terrorists could:
  • Destroy the Alaska pipeline and several other major pipelines in the continental U.S.
  • Destroy several of the largest super tanker unloading ports
  • Destroy the largest refineries in the U.S.
  • Destroy several significant gasoline storage facilities
  • Destroy the ability of the strategic oil reserve to pump oil.
Probably the most important part of the strategy is the refineries. If damage to a refinery is high, it will take quite awhile to rebuild it. Building new refineries is a multi-year process, so the oil industry will not be able to react in any near-term way to the loss of a number of refineries. By hitting just 10 big refineries, about 15% of the nation's refining capacity would shut down. By hitting the 50 largest refineries, a sizable portion of the nation's fuel supply would be cut off.

By coupling the destruction of refineries with other disturbances in the supply chain, it is likely that, short term, half of the nation's fuel supply could be disrupted for a period of several months. With only half the needed fuel available, the country would have to resort to emergency rationing. In that sort of environment, the effect on the economy would be immense, even if it were to go smoothly. Since we have not rehearsed or prepared for the scenario, however, the whole rationing plan would be created on the fly. It is likely that squabbling and shortages would be intense.

Even if only half of the attacks were successful, the result would be significant. The country's fuel supply is so finely balanced with demand right now that any disruption would have a larger-than-expected effect.

Damage Potential

Imagine that a coordinated attack by 100 terrorists is able to knock out a combination of targets (petroleum refining, storage and transport facilities) that cuts the fuel supply by 50% for 60 days. What would the effects be?

Emergency rationing would go into effect, with fuel being sent only to the parts of the economy essential to survival. Rationed fuel would be used to handle things like:

  • Farming, food processing and food transportation
  • Emergency services
  • Military services
  • Transport of drugs, medical supplies, etc.
  • Essential chemical transport for things like water treatment chemicals, food processing chemicals, etc.
  • Transport of things like coal by boat and train to keep power plants running
  • Transportation of essential personnel in these industries
It is likely that just about everything else in the economy would shut down or slow down significantly because of lack of materials, workers or energy. Unemployment and a recession of epic proportion would be the result. Total economic losses in the tens of trillions of dollars would be almost certain. It would be many years before the country recovered completely.

If, 6 months later, another attack on similar targets occurred, it is hard to predict the outcome.

Potential Solutions

As described in several of the individual scenarios related to this attack (scenarios on refineries, tank farms, etc.), the United States is wide open in its vulnerability to this sort of attack right now. Gasoline and diesel fuel are strategic, life-blood chemicals for this country. To be in a position where 10 bombs could cut refinery capacity by 15%, and to have no reserve refinery capacity to cover that loss, is a huge hole in our national security.

Given this sobering fact, and the magnitude of the potential damage to the nation, it would be prudent to deploy military personnel today to begin guarding the 25 to 50 largest refineries and storage facilities in the United States while we work on other solutions.

Once we know that our resources are as safe as we can make them today, there are a number of other solutions we could implement depending on our appetite for safety. Here are some options:

  • Build up 10% to 20% excess refining capacity.
  • Spread refining and storage infrastructure much more widely than seen today.
  • Eliminate large refineries and storage tanks and replace with a number of smaller facilities.
  • Build more super tankers so that there is excess supply.
  • If the threat is large enough, we should distribute fuel storage and maintain an on-site reserves that would cushion the economy for 3 to 6 months. For example, everyone who has a car could store a 3-month supply of gasoline in their garages (about 100 gallons per car). Companies with fleets of vehicles could do the same. This is a drastic step, but again, look at the economic cost if this attack were to occur.
Most importantly, we need to prepare the nation for an attack like this. If this attack were to occur tomorrow, there would be total chaos -- no one in the general public has ever thought about this scenario (in the same way we never thought about an attack on the World Trade Center). We do not have a list of people who are "essential" to the economy. We do not have a widely-circulated rationing plan that would cover different levels of supply. We do not have any cushion in any part of the fuel supply chain, which shows zero planning on the government's or the industry's part. All of these holes need to be filled.

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