Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Attack a Subway or Building with Sarin

Scenario

Attack a Subway or Building with Sarin

Description

On March 20, 1995, the world got its first real taste of chemical terrorism. The group Aum Shinrikyo in Tokyo released the nerve gas Sarin in the subway. 12 people died and thousands were injured in the attack.. Had the group been better organized, it is easy to imagine that thousands would have died.

Sarin is a convenient weapon for terrorists to use. It is relatively easy to manufacture. It is a "binary weapon", meaning that you can manufacture two relatively harmless chemicals and mix them minutes before the attack to create Sarin. It is deadly in small quantities -- half a milligram of Sarin is enough to kill an adult.

Sarin is most useful as a weapon in places where people are concentrated in a relatively small area. In that way, you do not need a large quantity of the gas to affect a large number of people. Typical sites for an attack might include:

Under ideal conditions, it would take approximately 100 to 200 pounds of Sarin to kill everyone in a large indoor stadium or a skyscraper. By injecting it into the ventilation system, 100 to 200 pounds would be enough to create a concentration of 50 to 100 milligrams per cubic meter of air throughout the structure.

Damage Potential

If terrorists were able to kill thousands of people in a stadium, skyscraper or convention center, the damage to society would be severe and would come in three forms:

  • The psychological damage from thousands of deaths
  • The societal disruption from thousands of deaths
  • The economic damage of the lost lives, as well as the economic impact that would be seen as people reacted to the deaths
If 5,000 people die, and you estimate the value of each life at $1 million, direct economic damage is $5 billion. Total economic damage would be much greater.

Potential Solutions

Since this scenario has already occurred, it is not a hypothetical scenario. It is a serious threat. The following solutions would help to diminish the threat:

  • In any skyscraper, stadium or convention center, install sensors that are able to detect chemicals like sarin, VX and botulin. These sensors need to sound an alarm and shut down ventilation systems.
  • Check everyone entering venues like stadiums, skyscrapers, etc. for chemical weapons, either by hand or with automated equipment.
  • Use facial recognition systems to look for the faces of known terrorists in places like stadiums and subway stations.
  • Create buildings that are immune to chemical and biological attack. See also the ventilation system scenario for details.
Option #2 in particular is difficult. People entering a convention center include vendors, participants, setup crews, security personnel, janitors, etc. There are so many different types of people moving around in the building that it would be difficult to check everything moving through the building. This problem makes early detection and evacuation, or completely immune builsings, the best options in the event of an attack. See also the ventilation system scenario.

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