Scenario: Nuclear Suitcase BombScenario Detonate a nuclear suitcase bomb in any major U.S. city or near any high-value target. Description A nuclear "suitcase bomb" is simply a nuclear bomb made small enough to transport in a convenient package like a suitcase or a backpack. It is easy to imagine a suitcase bomb being carried into a city in a car trunk, or even a small airplane (for an aerial burst over the city). To make a nuclear bomb small enough to fit into a suitcase, the yield would be limited to somewhere between 1 and 10 kilotons. For comparison, the yeild of Timothy McVeigh's truck bomb was on the order of 2 or 3 tons of explosives. A suitcase bomb would easily be 300 to 3,000 times more powerful. Damage Potential Detonated from a small airplane flying over a city, a suitcase bomb would level an area 0.5 to 1 mile in diameter, and cause extensive damage another mile out. There will also be damage from radiation, fallout and EMP effects. Monetary damage caused by such a bomb in any major city (Washington DC, NY, LA, etc.) would obviously be astronomical. For example, a detonation near Times Square, in the financial district of New York city, near the Mall in Washington DC, or a similar high-density/high-value target could conceivably destroy a trillion dollars or more in real estate and kill tens of thousands of people. The larger problem is the loss of key people. If detonated at the right place and time in Washington, DC, a suitcase bomb could completely decapitate the U.S. government by taking out the president, vice president, congress, the cabinet, etc. By detonating it near the pentagon at the right time, it could decapitate the military. In the financial district of NY, it could decapitate financial markets. Steps We Are Taking On March 1, 2002, the U.S. government announced for the first time the creation of a "shadow government", working secretly in bunkers outside Washington DC. According to the Washington Post, "President Bush has dispatched a shadow government of about 100 senior civilian managers to live and work secretly outside Washington, activating for the first time long-standing plans to ensure survival of federal rule after catastrophic attack on the nation's capital. Execution of the classified "Continuity of Operations Plan" resulted not from the Cold War threat of intercontinental missiles, the scenario rehearsed for decades, but from heightened fears that the al-Qaeda terrorist network might somehow obtain a portable nuclear weapon, according to three officials with firsthand knowledge." This is a good start, but only a start. Tens of thousands of elected officials, high-level appointees, department heads, advisors and bureaucrats work within a few blocks of one another in Washington DC. It is unlikely that the government could resume operations with all of these people dead. Potential Solutions The most obvious solution is to make the development of suitcase bombs impossible by totally controlling the flow of nuclear bomb-making materials and related technologies. Given the number of countries that have demonstrated nuclear capabilities, including India, Pakistan, Russia and China, as well as those suspected to be working on bombs, including Iran, Iraq and Korea, it is very unlikely that control of materials and technology is possible. The next obvious solution is to prevent the movement of a suitcase bomb into the U.S. Given how porous U.S. borders are (look at how easily tons of illegal drugs move into the U.S. every day as an example), this solution also seems impossible. Given the environment presented by the previous two points, then the only possible solution is to assume that the attack will happen and attempt to limit the damage. The way to limit the damage is to spread things out. For example, a suitcase bomb in a typical suburban landscape would do far less damage than the same attack in Times Square. Economic pressure and general human tendencies probably make the elimination of high-density urban development impossible. What we can guard against in that case is decapitation. The solution involves spreading key people out to multiple sites, and hardening the structures they use. For example:
Solutions include:
See also Solutions Related Links |
Home - Scenarios - Solutions - Targets - Weapons Mission - Why? - Contact - Forums Legal |