Scenario: Infect a large convention with Ebola
Scenario
Culture the Ebola virus and infect a large number of people with it at an event like a convention or a trade show.
Description
In his book Executive Orders, Tom Clancy writes about a scenario involving the Ebola virus. In the book, here's how the scenario plays out:
- Terrorists manage to get hold of an Ebola patient and fake her death.
- The virus from her body is cultivated to obtain a large quantity of live virus
- The virus is packaged in pressurized aerosol cans (which are disguised as shaving cream cans), and brought into the U.S. by individual terrorists on normal international flights.
- Once in the U.S., the terrorists go to large conventions. Typical conventions are car shows, golf shows, etc. A convention like this draws tens of thousands of visitors and concentrates them into a very small area.
- The terrorists find quiet spots at each convention and open their aerosol cans. In the book these cans are like "bug bombs", and they spray their entire contents into the air as a fine mist once they are activated.
As a result, hundreds of convention attendees are infected with Ebola and return to their homes. There they begin to infect friends and family members. One of the most powerful features of many biological weapons is this ability for victims of the attack to infect others.
In the book, it takes officials some time before they realize what is going on, because Ebola has flu-like symptoms initially. Once it is understood that a biological weapon has been used and that Ebola is the virus, the victims are brought to hospitals and isolated. The president asks people to stay in their homes and shuts down inter-state travel to stop the spread of the virus. The virus burns out after killing several thousand people.
In his book Rainbow Six, Clancy portrays a similar scenario. In this book, terrorists plan to disperse a modified Ebola virus in a misting system at the Olympics, but are captured at the last minute.
Damage Potential
The damage from this scenario comes in three parts:
- There is direct damage from the lives lost to the virus
- There is indirect damage from the disruption to society. Shutting down interstate travel to isolate people, for example, has a big effect on commerce. Economic damage could easily rise into the trillions of dollars depending on how long the isolation lasts.
- If members of the military are infected, then parts of the military shut down as well.
Potential Solutions
The scenarios portrayed in Clancy's books represent classic bio-terror tactics. Terrorists find a high concentration of people (at conventions, stadiums, skyscrapers, etc.) and expose them to a biological agent. Chemical agents that kill instantly, resulting in thousands of deaths, would be another approach.
Guarding against these scenarios is difficult for several reasons:
- A very small amount of material is needed for the attack, so it is easily hidden or disguised. That makes it very easy to bring the material into the venue
- The small quantity of material also makes it easy to disperse without being noticed
- In a biological attack, symptoms take several days to develop, so there is no obvious sign of a problem at the time of the attack
Solutions therefore tend to emphasize the response rather than prevention:
- The biggest problem is reaction time. Many diseases, like Ebola, do not look dangerous initially, so they are able to incubate and spread for some time before being detected. Making doctors more sensitive to the symptoms of certain bio-terror diseases might help detect problems earlier.
- Once detected, the next time-sensitive issue is isolation. The faster the nation responds by totally isolating victims to prevent the spread, the less damage will be done. Being able to isolate people to their homes and stop travel in the U.S. very quickly would also stop the spread of the disease. This is a civil defense strategy that, ideally, the public would know about ahead of time so that people are prepared.
- Hospitals should be prepared for and rehearse scenarios that require them to handle a large number of infected patients and completely isolate them.
- Since both anthrax (biological) and Sarin (chemical) have been used in actual attacks, these are two of the more likely candidate agents. Sarin could be detected with chemical sniffer technology that is emerging from research labs today. Anthrax spores could be detected with standard particulate collection systems like this one. Facilities such as convention halls and stadiums could install the machines and check for a release of anthrax during the event. If a release is detected, people could be warned with plenty of lead-time for treatment.
One interesting thing about Clancy's portrayal in "Executive Orders" is that the nation responds in what is largely an ad hoc way to the crisis, but the result is very effective. Doctors and the CDC eventually do figure out what has happened, and trace it back to the conventions. Hospitals do create isolation wards for the victims and treat them as best they can. The President is able to put measures in place so that the virus stops spreading. The crisis is contained. Several thousand people do die, but that is much better than the millions who could potentially die if the nation were slow to react. We can hope, in a real crisis like this, that the country responds this well. Understanding and rehearsing the scenario ahead of time would make us even more prepared.
In Clancy's book, the virus is eventually and conclusively traced back to the leader of a rogue nation. He, and presumably his entire staff, are killed (on national TV no less) in a bombing run, sending the signal that state-sponsored terrorism will not be tolerated by the United States. This is the same basic message that America sent by attacking Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks.
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