Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Shoot down Air Force One

Scenario

Using a Stinger missile, shoot down Air Force One or the President's helicopter.

Description

Terrorist attacks on Air Force One are such a popular topic that there is even a movie called Air Force One.

A real attack on Air Force One would probably involve a Stinger Missile fired from the ground. A Stinger missile is a shoulder-launched weapon weighing about 35 pounds. A single terrorist can operate it. Once launched, a Stinger missile has a range of about 5 miles and can hit targets up to 11,000 feet in the air. The terrorist simply aims the missile at the airplane or helicopter, waits for the infrared seeker in the missile to lock onto the target, and pulls the trigger. The missile does the rest.

During Afghanistan's war with the Soviet Union, the U.S. gave Afghanistan rebels about 900 Stinger missiles to use. Hundreds of Soviet helicopters were lost. There are thought to be dozens of Stinger missiles still in Afghanistan.

While cruising, Air Force One flies at an altitude of 30,000 feet or more, making it immune to Stinger missile attack. However, on takeoff and landing it is within range for several minutes. (The Presidential helicopter, taking off and landing at the White House, is also within range of a Stinger missile for a period of time.)

Terrorists interested in shooting down Air Force One would import a Stinger missile from Afghanistan. They would track the President's schedule, and pick a city for the attack. They would set up the missile two to four miles from the end of the runway. When Air Force One flew overhead, they would launch the missile.

Damage Potential

The damage from this attack comes in two ways. First, there is the psychological effect of a Presidential assassination, as well as the effects on the leadership of the country and the continuity of government. Second, an attack like this would probably mark the end of flying for U.S. Presidents.

Potential Solutions

Solutions to this scenario are difficult to come by because:

  1. Afghanistan possesses Stinger missiles
  2. The missiles are small enough to import and conceal easily
  3. The missiles can be fired without any special vehicles or equipment
  4. Given the 5-mile range, there are 50 to 100 square miles of land off the end of the runway that act as the viable launch area. It is impossible to search or secure an area that large.
  5. There is little a plane can do to evade a Stinger missile.
Perhaps the only sure solution is to ground Air Force One. Another solution would be to surround Air Force One with four to six fighters on take-off and landing so that a Stinger missile hits one of them rather than Air Force One.

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