Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Hold the country hostage with nuclear bombs

Scenario

Using one or more nuclear bombs as the threat, hold the country hostage. Alternatively, simply blow up a nuclear warhead in one or more major cities to permanently destabilize the country.

Description

The nuclear bomb strategy is one of the most ominous terrorist scenarios discussed in the media. It is so common that it has been portrayed in the movie True Lies, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. The terrorist portion of the movie is a valid scenario.

In the True Lies scenario, terrorist are able to obtain nuclear warheads from Russia. The terrorists obtain four MIRV warheads from a soviet SS-22N launch vehicle, each with a 30 kiloton yield (1,000 to 2,000 times more powerful than Timothy McVeigh's truck bomb, and about 3 times more powerful than the bomb used at Hiroshima). The warheads are about 5 feet long and 18 inches in diameter at the base (conical shape). The terrorists arrive with their weapons (which are smuggled in inside of large ancient sculptures) on one of the islands in the Key West chain. Their plan is to plant a bomb in the Keys and drive north with the remaining three bombs. The size of the bombs makes them easy to move by truck.

The terrorists in the movie make the following demands:

    Unless you, America, pulls all military forces out of the Persian Gulf area immediately and forever, the Crimson Jihad will rain fire on one major U.S. city each week until our demands are met. First we will detonate one weapon on this uninhabited island as a demonstration of our power and Crimson Jihad's willingness to be humanitarian. However, if these demands are not met, the Crimson Jihad will rain fire on one American city each week.
Whether or not Russian MIRV warheads are easy to obtain is the subject of debate. It is assumed that the American nuclear arsenal is secure. However, there are many nations building or suspected of building nuclear weapons these days, India and Pakistan being the two most recent countries to successfully detonate nuclear bombs. Obtaining a nuclear bomb today is certainly not as difficult as it was 20 years ago. A nation like Iraq might have good reason to develop nuclear bombs and release them to terrorists.

The terrorists could demand anything they like. They could also simply plant and detonate the bombs without warning.

Damage Potential

The damage that a nuclear bomb could do is discussed in the nuclear suitcase bomb scenario. With MIRV warheads or similar home-brew devices, the yield is up to 30 times greater than a suitcase bomb. In a major city, this would mean trillions of dollars in real estate damage, and potentially hundreds of thousands of lives lost. In losing that many people, the threat of decapitation of the government, military or financial establishment is strong. See nuclear suitcase bomb scenario for a discussion.

Potential Solutions

The solutions for this scenario are the same as those for a suitcase bomb, with a few additions.

  • Reduce and secure existing nuclear weapons stockpiles. We are headed down this track, but there is a constant undertow of worry about Russian bombs being loose. If necessary, we should help to secure them.
  • Eliminate new nuclear threats as they arise. Neither India or Pakistan will like this idea, but we should either diplomatically eliminate their nuclear capabilities or, failing that, blow up their nuclear arms infrastructure. Using our intelligence organizations, we should hunt down and detonate every nuclear weapons program on the planet. Having these programs operating in third world countries and rogue nations is a gigantic threat to world security. It is too easy for bombs, or bomb-making materials, to fall into the wrong hands.
  • Make the development of bombs impossible by totally controlling the flow of nuclear bomb-making materials and related technologies. Given the number of countries that have demonstrated nuclear capabilities, including India, Pakistan, Russia and China, as well as those suspected to be working on bombs, including Iran, Iraq and Korea, it is very unlikely that control of materials and technology is possible.
  • Prevent the movement of a suitcase bomb into the U.S. Given how porous U.S. borders are (look at how easily tons of illegal drugs move into the U.S. as an example), this solution also seems impossible.
  • Given the environment presented by the previous two points, then the only possible solution is to assume that the attack will happen and attempt to limit the damage. The way to limit the damage is to spread things out. For example, a suitcase bomb in a typical suburban landscape would do far less damage than the same attack in Times Square.
It may be that economic pressure and general human tendencies make the elimination of high-density urban development impossible. However, what we can guard against is decapitation. The solution involves spreading key people out to multiple sites, and hardening the structures they use. For example:
  • Having so much financial talent located within walking distance of the New York stock exchange is a risk. These people should be distributed to many different cities, and computer software should calculate and balance the risks constantly (software can assign values to all of the key people in the financial community and warn when too many key people have gathered too closely together).
  • In the same way, having so much key government talent in Washington DC is a risk, because it is easy to decapitate the government. It should be spread out. If not spread out, or if meeting together is deamed essential, then the people should be meeting deep underground in nuclear-hardened structures.
  • The same can be said about the concentration of military talent at the Pentagon. It is a very large risk.
  • Many corporations suffer from the same problem, and if they are essential to the U.S. economy, then they should take steps to spread out.
  • Create evacuation plans for, and practice the evacuation of, major cities. If terrorists were to threaten a city with nuclear destruction, we would need to empty the city into the countryside. We would have, essentially, several million refugees in a wide area surrounding a city. Where would they go? How would they live? We have never even thought about it in an open, public discussion, much less considered practicing it.
Any time we cluster a large number of key people in a small area, we make the job easy for terrorists.

Related Links


For a complete list of terrorist scenarios please click here For solutions
please click here
To comment on any scenario or
suggest new ones
please click here
Newsletter
Enter your email address
to receive the newsletter


© Copyright 2002 by BYG Publishing, Inc. All rights reserved.
Home - Scenarios - Solutions - Targets - Weapons
Mission - Why? - Contact - Forums
Legal