Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Send Anthrax in the Mail

Scenario

Place anthrax spores, or some other biological weapon, into an envelope and mail it to anyone in the world.

Description

This scenario became real just after the September 11 attacks, and for awhile made it seem that our world was totally out of control. Prior to the anthrax attacks in the U.S., conventional wisdom held that an anthrax attack was unlikely because of the difficulty of obtaining the spores, handling them without exposure, packaging them in a way that would disperse them properly, etc. The attack in the U.S. proved that an anonymous anthrax attack through the U.S. mail was extremely easy. Assuming that you have the anthrax spores or are able to create them in a home lab, then and anthrax attack is one of the least expensive terrorist scenarios there is. For 34 cents, you can mail a deadly toxin to anyone you like.

The only good news to be found in these attacks is that the terrorist went no further. He or she did not, for example, take a box of the spores and float them into the ventilation system at a major convention or sporting event.

Anthrax is a particularly good toxin for this purpose because it travels well. Unlike many other bacteria, anthrax bacteria can transform into a spore form that is very rugged and long-lasting. When a person inhales the spores, the moisture in the lungs allows the spores to convert back into bacteria and infect the victim in just a few days.

When formed into a fine power, anthrax spores are quite mobile. The powder gets into the air and can enter ventilation systems. This is what happened after an anthrax letter was opened in Senator Daschle's office. The spores spread to other offices and required decontamination of the entire building.

Remaining anonymous after an attack is apparently easy, as no suspects have been arrested following the attack in the U.S.

Damage Potential

As seen in the attacks in 2001, damage comes in several different ways:

  • People who receive the letters do get exposed to anthrax. If untreated, they die.
  • People in different parts of the postal system get exposed, and they die as well.
  • Other mail gets exposed, which can lead to deaths, and also requires decontamination of large quantites of mail. In the 2001 attack the contaminated mail was irradiated, but the irradiated mail caused its own problems.
  • Anthrax spores from opened mail can enter ventilation systems and contaminate buildings. Decontaminating a large building can get expensive. The cost of decontaminating the Hart senate office building exceeded $10 million.
  • The anthrax letters spawned hundreds of hoaxes, each of which had to be investigated.
  • The anthrax threat increased the cost of mail handling. Many corporations, media companies and government offices established off-site facilities to open and process incoming mail.
All told, the simple act of mailing a dozen letters containing anthrax spores killed several people and probably cost the country a total of several billion dollars. According to this article, for example, "According to Potter, the terrorist attacks have cost the postal system around $3 billion dollars. That cost includes damages to facilities on Sept. 11 as well as medical costs and equipment needs incurred by the anthrax scare."

Potential Solutions

No one knows exactly what happened, but the anthrax letters probably came from a lone individual working in secrecy. There is some speculation that the source of the spores might have been a lab in a terrorist country, but it is likely we will never know for sure.

In either case, the simple fact is that the U.S. postal system is a gigantic security hole. The Unabomber first made this point for us with his random letter bombs. Under the current system, any random person anywhere in the world can put postage on a letter, insert it into the postal system with complete anonymity, and have it hand-delivered directly into the home or office of the recipient. That letter can contain an explosive, a nerve toxin, anthrax spores, radioactive material, AIDS-infected blood... the possibilities are endless. Because the letters are not inspected and the sender can remain totally anonymous, the postal system is a terrorist's dream come true.

When you board an airplane today, you are asked the following question, "Has any stranger unknown to you asked you to carry anything onboard this aircraft?" If you were to answer "yes" to the question, you would not be allowed on board. The postal system would have to answer "yes" to this question billions of times per day. The current system is an amazing security risk. Why would you allow an anonymous person to have his uninspected packages hand-delivered into you home?

Like the Alaska Pipeline, the U.S. postal system is another example of a system that was originally designed at a time when terrorism was not a threat. It made sense then, but in today's terrorist climate it is an accident waiting to happen.

To solve this problem, the postal system needs to change in one of two ways:

  • All letters and packages must be inspected
  • Everyone placing letters and packages into the system must be known
If a person is going to be expected to accept a letter or package into his or her home, the person would either want to know that the package is safe, or would want to know definitively who sent it. In an ideal world, both systems would be in place.

Ending anonymity is probably the easier of the two problems to solve because the postal system is already halfway there. Right now there is a system in place that tags many pieces of mail with a unique ID. This ID is sprayed on the back of the envelope with a light-orange bar code. By expanding that system, every single piece of mail could have a unique ID. All that is then needed is a way to identify the sender. This can be done with a form of licensing. In the same way that you get a license to drive a car, you would get a license to send mail. When you presented your mail at the post office, your license would act as your ID. Every letter would then have a known sender.

Drop boxes could be automated to provide the same capability. You would insert your license before inserting your letter. The box would record your transaction and know who sent the letter. The box could potentially take your photograph or fingerprint as well. Alternatively, drop boxes could be eliminated -- all mail would have to be presented at a post office.

For businesses sending massive amounts of mail, the process would be much simpler. The post office receives bulk mail by the truckload. The company sending the mail is already known.

Relatively speaking, the amount of mail sent anonymously by private individuals is small. Therefore, the total cost of removing anonymity will be relatively small. Let's say it increases the cost of mailing a letter by one to two cents. If that means that we eliminate the terrorist threat through the postal system, it is insignificant.

Fedex, UPS, etc. would need to install similar systems. However, the level of anonymity in these systems is already significantly lower right now because people pay for each letter individually with a credit card or a ID number. If credit card information and sender ID numbers were secure, Fedex and UPS would already have secure systems.

The alternative -- inspecting every package -- can also be created and much of the process can be automated. The system would scan each package or letter for explosives, biological threats, chemical threats and nuclear contamination. Chemical sniffing systems could identify chemicals and biohazards not in well-sealed containers, and we would have to assume that the recipient is smart enough not to open a container from an anonymous sender. Radioactive materials are easy to sense with a Geiger counter. Explosives are trickier, but can probably be handled with X-rays followed by hand-inspection of suspect packages. This inspection system would not be inexpensive, but spread over billions of letters it would raise postage prices by an insignificant amount.

Either way, we must install one system or the other. If we do not, then another terrorist attack using the postal system is inevitable.

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