Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Jumbo Jet Used as a Weapon

Scenario

Hijack a jumbo jet containing 20,000 gallons of jet fuel and then slam it into a building or other target.

Description

The massive destructive power of this scenario was made plainly visible to everyone on September 11, 2001, when four hijacked jets reached three significant targets. The ultimate result of this attack was on the order of $50 billion in direct damage to buildings in New York city, and up to $1 trillion in total economic damage across the U.S. from layoffs, the resulting recession, cleanup costs and so on.

Repeating this sort of hijacking remains within the realm of possibility today. Not all airplanes have reinforced cockpit doors yet, and not all flights have air marshals on board. In addition, passenger jets leaving from passenger terminals are only one type of jet. A Fedex airplane or a charter airplane is just as valuable as a weapon.

Once in possession of a plane, the terrorists can fly it into any number of targets:

  • A major building or monument
  • A government facility like the white house, the capital or a government office building
  • A corporate headquarters
  • A nuclear power plant
  • Major bridges
  • A stadium full of people
  • and so on...

Damage Potential

As Demonstrated on December 11, 20,000 gallons of jet fuel has quite a bit of destructive potential. A fully fueled jumbo jet can destroy just about any man-made structure in existence today, including nuclear reactors at commercial power plants. In a highly populated area, the death toll could easily rise above ten thousand.

In the case of September 11, the two jumbo jets in NY City did something on the order of $50 billion in damage to real estate and killed 3,000 people. However, the effect on the economy overall was much greater. For example, the attack shut down the airline industry for a week and crippled it for years, causing economic losses measured in the tens of billions of dollars and eliminating over 100,000 jobs. If you count the effects on the stock market, the overall effects of the loss of consumer confidence on the economy, the effects on the travel and tourism industries, the cost of the cleanup, the massive loss of jobs and the ripple effect of them, the loss of tax revenues, the cost of government bailout and stimulus packages and so on, total economic losses associated with the attack probably may approach one trillion dollars.

A coordinated attack on Washington DC or the financial markets (for example, the NYSE and NASDAQ), a nuclear power plant near an urban area, a major sporting event (killing tens of thousands), or even on a major theme park during the busy season could have similar effects on the economy.

Progress we have made

This scenario is one where we have made progress toward a solution. We have seen:

  • Military personnel placed in many airports
  • Beefed up security in airports
  • A federal take-over of the airport security system
  • The placement of air marshals on some flights
  • The start to the process of securing cockpit doors
  • Special restrictions on certain flights. For example, on flights arriving at or leaving National airport in Washington DC, passengers are not allowed to stand up when the plane is within 30 minutes of the airport. Presumably if someone did stand up, the on-board air marshal would shoot him or her.
On February 11, 2002, USA Today reported the following: "But within weeks of September 11, the normally sluggish Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) made rule changes that allowed the airlines to reinforce cockpit doors with steel bars or other barriers, and the airlines quickly responded. In January (2002), the FAA efficiently followed with an order to retrofit passenger planes with new, hardened cockpit doors by April 2003." However, the same story also reported: "Citing security concerns, the Bush administration won't say how many air marshals now are flying, or even whether providing 100% coverage is a goal. It should be."

Potential Solutions

  • Strip all passengers to their underwear, allow no baggage of any sort and shackle passengers to their seats. Passengers would Fedex their baggage to the destination a day ahead of time. This sounds comical, but it would definitely end the problem of hijackings on airplanes once and for all.
  • Immediately after September 11 there was discussion of systems that would allow people on the ground to take over an aircraft and fly it via radio control in the event of an emergency. Other systems would allow the auto-pilot to take over and fly the plane to its destination. The second system would be relatively easy to install at relatively low cost, because the auto-pilot is already installed in the planes.
  • Immediately after September 11, the Air Force was highly visible with AWACS planes in the air 24 hours a day and fighters circling major sporting events and other large gatherings. With AWACS and fighters, the hope was to be able to detect and down any rogue aircraft almost immediately. Continue this practice indefinitely.
  • Put in place tighter security measures discussed after September 11, including locked, reinforced doorways into the cockpit, arming the pilots, training flight attendants in self-defense, tighter passenger screening, facial recognition systems and so on.
  • Place air marshals on all flights.
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