Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Destroy the Fort Peck Dam

Scenario

Using explosives, destroy the Fort Peck dam in Montana in order to cause massive destruction downstream.

Description

By blowing up a dam -- a relatively simple terrorist attack -- terrorists unleash the destructive force of the water behind the dam. That destructive force may manifest itself over several days, depending on the location of the dam. This is what makes dams such inviting terrorist targets.

The Fort Peck scenario was originally suggested by Thomas Frey several years ago. In this scenario, terrorists attack the earthen dam in Fort Peck, Montana. This dam is 21,000 feet long, with a maximum height of 250 feet. The lake behind the dam ranks fifth in size among man-made lakes in the United States. The lake has a maximum capacity of nearly 19 million acre-feet of water -- almost 6 trillion gallons. There is a hydro-electric power plant at the dam that generates approximately 200 megawatts of electrical power.

This map shows the location of the lake. On this map you can see the dam itself. This page shows a picture of the dam and its cross-section.

It is a recreational lake, meaning that the dam is vulnerable to attack by truck, boat or underwater. It is thought that terrorists could use relatively small underwater charges planted along the dam to destroy it. A nuclear suitcase bomb would certainly destroy it.

Once the dam is destroyed, its 6 trillion gallons of water would begin flowing down stream. This is where the multiplying effect takes hold. A timeline would look something like this:

  • Approximately four hours after the initial explosion, the flood would reach Lake Sakakawea, near Riverdale, ND. Lake Sakakawea is slightly larger than the Fort Peck lake, and its dam would be overwhelmed by the flood and collapse. Now the amount of water has doubled.
  • The flood would then reach Bismark, capital of North Dakota, and destroy it.
  • Approximately 3 hours later, the flood would reach Lake Oahe near Pierre, South Dakota. This lake is the same size as the previous two. Its dam is overwhelmed and collapses as well. Now, approximately 20 trillion gallons of water are heading downstream.
  • The water destroys other smaller hydroelectric dams and adds to the flood. It reaches and destroys Kansas City. It eventually reaches the Mississippi river at St. Louis and destroys the city.
  • By choosing the right time of year for the attack, the Mississippi river will be high and flooding already. This huge mass of water and debris will flow down the Mississippi river to the Gulf of Mexico, destroying Memphis, Baton Rouge and New Orleans in the process.

Damage Potential

In this attack, millions of acres would be flooded. Dozens of towns and a number of major cities would be destroyed. The death toll would likely exceed 100,000. Millions of people would survive but would be left homeless. Countless power plants, refineries, bridges and so on would be lost. The nation would be essentially bisected, because all infrastructure along the Mississippi river (roads, train tracks, electrical lines, pipelines are so on) would be destroyed by the flood.

It is difficult to put a dollar figure on the damage, but it would easily reach into the tens of trillions of dollars. It would take the nation many years -- potentially several decades -- to completely recover from the attack..

Potential Solutions

There are two questions to ask about a scenario of this magnitude:

  1. How do we prevent this scenario from happening?
  2. What would we do if this happened? How would we, as a nation, respond to 10 or 20 million homeless people, the loss of a significant portion of the power generation and fuel refining infrastructure, and the destruction of major transportation routes across the country?
One solution would be to drain these lakes to end the threat. Assuming that that is not an option, the solution is to guard these lakes as though our lives depend on them. Because this scenario is so massively destructive, there should be a major military presence in place protecting these large lakes from terrorist attack (whether the attack comes from the air, on or under the water, or on the ground). If you are a resident of St. Louis or New Orleans, you would like to see that the roads leading to the dams are closed. That boats are kept miles from the structures. That radar and fighters guard the airspace. That subs and sonar are in place to detect underwater threats. These dams are simply too valuable, and too dangerous, to leave wide open as they are today.

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