Scenario: Attack the Coal SupplyScenario Using explosives, destroy mining equipment or railroad lines so that the mining or transportation of coal is significantly disrupted. Description Coal is a critical resource for two major industries in the U.S.: power generation and steel production. About 80% of all coal used in the U.S. burns in coal-fired power plants [ref], so power generation is the biggest consumer of U.S. coal by far. According to this page, about half of all electricity produced in the U.S. comes from coal. Therefore, if you are a terrorist and you want to disrupt power generation in the United States, one strategy might be to try to interrupt the mining or transportation of coal. There are thousands of coal mines in the U.S. However, two important facts make it possible to consider an attack on coal production and transportation:
Likely attacks would be on railroad bridges, especially over major rivers, because large bridges can take a year or more to replace. The terrorists would analyze maps to find significant choke points that affect coal transportation. Other possible coal targets include the mines themselves and the equipment there, coal loading facilities for trains or barges, and the trains themselves. Attacking or derailing a large coal train while it is in motion could create a very large mess. Damage Potential If a series of attacks could shut down 30% of the coal production in the U.S. in a way that is difficult to repair (e.g. -- attacking large bridges), then that would potentially eliminate 15% of the electrical generating capacity in the United States. That would have serious repercussions for the power grid, because supply and demand are finely balanced. It would almost certainly lead to rationing in many parts of the country. See this scenario for a description. Potential Solutions This attack seems less likely than an all-out assault on power plants and transmission lines, because it would not have immediate impact. It might take several weeks or months for power plants to burn off existing on-site inventories of coal. However, this attack might take far fewer people to implement, and the attacks could occur in remote areas where there is little chance of detection or capture. Preventing an attack is difficult because railroad lines are nearly impossible to protect. Some possibilities include:
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