Ten Dangerous Scenarios

Attack a nuclear plant

Cripple the
Transportation System

Destroy the
Fort Peck Dam

Detonate a suitcase bomb

Attack the Alaska pipeline

Contaminate a ventilation system

Cut off power to
a major city

Shoot down
Air Force One

Attack a chemical factory

Destroy a stadium

>> See the entire list <<

Scenario: Destroy the Water Supply

Scenario

Using explosives, destroy the water supply infrastruture to cut off water to a region.

Description

Water is an essential chemical for both human and industrial life. If the water supply in a major city or municipality were cut off, there would be a number of consequences:

  1. We would have no drinking water
  2. We would be unable to flush toilets, and human waste would pile up very quickly
  3. We would have no water for washing dishes, bathing, etc.
  4. We would have no water to fight fires
  5. Any industry dependent on water would shut down
  6. We would be unable to water crops or livestock
A lack of drinking water is obviously a life-threatening situation, but humans do not drink that much. If drinking were the only thing we did with water, it would be easy to truck water in in bottles if need be. It is all the other things that causes a typical household in America to use something on the order of 100 gallons of water per day. And many of these uses are not frivolous. Flushing the toilet several times a day is a necessity.

In major cities in the U.S., the public water supply is extremely centralized. A typical city might get its water from a river or from a handful of reservoirs, treat it at a handful of water treatment plants, pressurize it through a small number of pumping stations and then distribute it through a small number of distribution mains.

For these reasons, a terrorist attack on the water supply could have the effect of cutting off the water supply to an entire urban water district. If the water supply was cut off for a month or more, it could make that urban area uninhabitable.

Using explosives, terrorists could attack a water supply in the following ways:

  • They could blow up the dam to a reservoir
  • They could blow the water intake area for the water treatment plant
  • The could blow up the water treatment plant
  • They could blow up pipelines or aqueducts leading to and from the water treatment plant
  • They could blow up pumping stations
  • They could blow up distribution mains
  • They could blow up water towers
The first two targets in this list would have the longest-lasting effects, and the first one could be devastating. It is not easy to fix a drained reservoir in a day or two. It might take a year to repair the dam and then refill the reservoir. However, small attacks on pipelines and pumps could cut off water for up to a month if they were well-placed, and that could have a severe effect on the city.

Damage Potential

An attack on the water supply probably kills no one, and it does not do that much physical damage -- cost of repair will not be that big an expense. The goal of a water supply attack like this would be to drive people out of a city, probably for a strategic reason. For example, imagine the effect of zero water on a city like New York, Los Angeles or Washington DC. It would not take that long for human waste and fires to drive people out of the city. That can be incredibly disruptive (for example, to the Federal government or the financial system), and it would have a long-term economic impact.

Potential Solutions

There are several different strategies that our cities can use to guard against an attack like this:

  • If you drive down to the dam at your local reservoir, chances are that you can drive your car across it and that it is not protected in any way short of a chain link fence here and there. That is a big risk. In many cases, a well-placed truck bomb could have a big effect on the dam. Dams and a good-size perimeter should be off-limits, and there should be protection (e.g. guards, surveillance systems, etc.) to prevent intrusion.
  • In the same way, the water treatment plant, critical pipelines, pumping stations and do on should be fenced and guarded. There are many cities where a terrorist could easily drive up to a critical pipeline and destroy it.
  • Cities should have redundant systems in place. There should not be a situation where a single attack or a small group of attacks could cut off the water to an entire region.
  • There should be a plan in place to handle a situation where water is cut off. This makes good sense not only because of terrorist threats but also because of natural disasters. Hurricanes, tornadoes and earthquakes can all shut down water systems. For example, residents should have a supply of bottled drinking water in their homes sufficient to last for one to two weeks. Residents should know what to do if the water supply is damaged (for example, the water system works, but can only pump at half capacity).
Adding guards, other protective measures and redundant systems has a cost. However, having a city shut down because of a terrorist attack has an immeasurably greater cost. If the price of residential water in a city goes up by 10% (or even 50%) in order to secure that city's water supply, what difference does it make when compared to the potential loss?

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